The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll

November 2 is Election Day across the United States. People will cast their votes in sanctioned popularity contests for offices ranging from local school boards to governors. Somewhere in between the 10 o’clock news and daybreak, there will be people angry or happy due to their candidate’s fortune.

In Massachusetts, the most interesting race to watch unfold has been the gubernatorial race. While you would think that having four candidates would offer more than enough food for thought, this race has had the added flavor of lawsuits, scandal and name calling.

Instead of relying on phone or exit polls, I decided to use social mentions of the candidates to determine the next governor of the commonwealth. I pulled the data surrounding Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill and Jill Stein using Lithium Social Media Monitoring (formerly Scout Labs) over the past month. From there the numbers were inserted into my formula that equally weighs five variables, including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.  Each variable was ranked on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point.

Throughout the month of October, there were nearly 10,000 mentions of the candidates across the social Web. A whopping 74 percent surrounded Patrick and Cahill who currently serve as Governor and Treasurer respectively. Below are the charts breaking down the variables that the winner was selected from:

For a full breakdown report of each candidate in comparison to the field, please click their name below for a PDF:

And the winner is…

WORCESTER, MA - OCTOBER 25: Democratic Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick addresses the crowd during a rally on October 25, 2006 in Worcester, Massachusetts. Patrick has opened up a double digit lead over Republican rival Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, and if elected would be the first African-American governor of Massachusetts and only the second in the history of the United States.  (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)


After taking the top slot in four of the five categories and a cumulative score of 11 (15 is a perfect score), Deval Patrick is social media’s pick to remain the top dog on Beacon Hill.

At the end of the day, I will be interested in seeing if the social buzz for the candidates translates to voters hitting the polls.  Without voters, we have no real democracy so I urge you to hit the polls in your given state and make your voice heard. And if you tell the world via foursquare, you’ll even get a shiny new badge.

6 Responses to The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll
  1. Ken j Danieli
    November 1, 2010 | 2:14 pm

    clear as mud

  2. Anonymous
    November 1, 2010 | 2:22 pm

    While it doesn’t reflect how I would like to see tomorrow go, the buzz and numbers point towards Deval.

  3. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by jeffespo, Cheryl Savit. Cheryl Savit said: An interesting perspective on the MA gov race from @jeffespo http://tinyurl.com/39k62sy […]

  4. Ari Herzog
    November 2, 2010 | 2:20 am

    Great research but you’re missing a crucial element, Jeff: the Millennial Equation.

    According to a Pew report last month — http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1759/young-voters-obama-democrats-2010-midterm-elections-lagging-enthusiasm — the URL keywords speak for themselves.

    “53% of voters 30 and older are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with just 31% of young voters — a 22-point gap. In 2006, there was an 11-point difference; 50% of voters 30 and older, and 39% of those younger than age 30, were giving a lot of thought to the election.”

    Thus, my question is what is the age range in your research — and if Millennials are a big factor, is it now polite to discount them online?

  5. […] the article here: The Massachusetts Gubernatorial Social Straw Poll | Strategic … Share and […]

  6. Anonymous
    November 2, 2010 | 10:30 am

    Ari – There are many flaws with just looking at raw data and age is one of them. Since the average social user is ~37 years of age (http://bit.ly/cTaZ8a), I would think that Millennials are served by these numbers. Another area that may have skewed numbers is that Deval is a sitting Governor and Cahill is the treasurer. So any time they do something for public policy or participate in a job function, there will be cameras and armchair QBs thus inflating their numbers.

    We also would have to assume that everyone that mentioned a candidate will do like you or I later today and step into one of the Commonwealth’s voting booth.

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