Tomorrow, the NFL kicks off another season and with that everyone from armchair quarterbacks to TV hosts and the President will be making predictions for games. Some people will pick on gut intuition, some on stats, while others pick by color or cuter quarterbacks. You may have your own method. This year, I am going to continue my work from last year in predicting winners of the games using social media buzz and some formulas using Lithium Social Media Monitoring.
Last season was interesting and I finished with a 132-123 record, followed up with a 7-4 record in the postseason, including correctly picking the Conference and Super Bowl winners. Despite the mild success in 2011, I wanted to go back to the drawing board and tweak the scoring system a bit.
This year I will be looking at data for 14-days for each team (Editor’s note – for Week 1, we will be using 7-day data) because looking at seven days last year skewed mentions when the byes started; and I will be dropping neutral mentions in terms of the scoring for NPS – this number grossly inflated scores for teams with national fan bases (Dallas, Pittsburgh, NY Giants) or teams that were a hotbed for national story-lines surrounding individual players (Tim Tebow). Below are the updated metrics and points breakdown:
- Net Promoter Score [NPS] (Positive Mentions – Negative Mentions/Weekly Team Mentions) – 3 Points
- Social Influence Marketing Score [SIM](NPS*Conversation Share*1,000) – 3 Points
- Conversation Share (Total Team Mentions/Mentions for Weekly Matchup) – 7 Points
- Positive Conversation Share (Positive Team Mentions/Mentions for Weekly Matchup) – 7 Points
- Negative Conversation Share (Negative Team Mentions/Mentions for Weekly Matchup) – -7 Points
In the case of a tie, the team with the most overall positive mentions will be selected as the week’s winner.
Also new for 2012 is a weekly challenge between me and some friends from all corners of the Interwebs. I will donate $100 to a charity selected by the individual with the best weekly score. The lineup includes:
- Week 1 Mike Pace
- Week 2 Mandie Boardman
- Week 3 Jason Mollica
- Week 4 Dave Folkens
- Week 5 Gini Dietrich
- Week 6 Matt LaCasse
- Week 7 Dan Haas
- Week 8 Marc Girolimetti
- Week 9 Amy Esposito
- Week 10 Nick Gosselin
- Week 11 Rebecca Denison
- Week 12 Bob Cargill
- Week 13 Jesse Bekas
- Week 14 Amanda Oleson
- Week 15 Chris Carfi
- Week 16 Shelly Kramer
- Week 17 Doug Haslam
What do you think of this test? Can you pick better? If you think so, feel free to play along by giving your picks in each week’s picks starting tomorrow (for special Wednesday opener) and then each Thursday after that.